2027: North-West Extends Voter Registration Lead as Sokoto, Jigawa Top Growth
The North-West has strengthened its position as Nigeria’s fastest-growing voter registration zone, with Sokoto and Jigawa recording the highest percentage increases ahead of the 2027 general elections.
An analysis of Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) figures by Mundx Analytics showed that Nigeria’s registered voter population rose from 93,469,008 in 2023 to 103,428,715 in October 2026, representing an increase of 9.96 million, or 10.66 per cent.
The North-West led the six geopolitical zones with 12.71 per cent growth, followed by the North-East at 11.35 per cent and the North-Central at 10.43 per cent.
In the South, the South-East recorded 9.80 per cent growth, the South-South 9.58 per cent, while the South-West posted 9.22 per cent.
Sokoto topped the state rankings, with registered voters increasing from 2,172,056 in 2023 to 2,633,113 in October 2026, representing a rise of 461,057, or 21.23 per cent.
Jigawa followed with a 19.42 per cent increase, from 2,351,298 to 2,807,811 voters, while Osun ranked third with 19.08 per cent growth.
Other states among the 10 highest growth rates were Yobe, Kogi, Zamfara, Edo, Ebonyi, Kebbi and Bayelsa. Four North-West states—Sokoto, Jigawa, Zamfara and Kebbi—featured on the list.
In absolute figures, the North-West added approximately 2.83 million registered voters, accounting for 28.39 per cent of the national increase.
The figures showed that all 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory recorded increases, while 18 states exceeded the national growth rate.
INEC Chairman, Prof. Joash Amupitan, had earlier disclosed that the three-phase Continuous Voter Registration exercise recorded 10,772,421 new registrations before the final cleaning of the register.
The growing electorate has intensified political calculations ahead of the 2027 presidential election, particularly over whether the North-West’s numerical advantage will translate into decisive electoral influence.
The national vice-president of the Nigerian Political Science Association, Prof. Murtala Muhammad, cautioned that a large voter population does not automatically guarantee political power.
Citing the 2023 presidential election, Muhammad noted that the North-West had approximately 22.26 million registered voters but recorded only about 6.91 million votes cast, representing roughly 31.1 per cent turnout.
He argued that voter participation, political organisation, mobilisation and coalition-building would determine whether the region could convert its numerical strength into electoral influence.
Muhammad also warned that fragmented political loyalties and ineffective leadership could weaken the region’s advantage, stressing that electoral strength should ultimately translate into improved security, education, employment, infrastructure and accountable governance.
Similarly, the immediate past president of the Nigerian Political Science Association, Prof. Hassan Salihu, attributed the North-West’s growth partly to its population size and voter mobilisation.
Salihu, however, noted that a high number of registered voters did not necessarily mean they would all participate in elections.
Former Enugu State chairman of the Inter-Party Advisory Council, Barrister John Nwobodo, also cited political awareness and mobilisation as factors behind regional differences in registration.
Meanwhile, political analyst Salisu Ibrahim Gimba of Kaduna State University said the North-West’s growing electorate would influence political calculations, warning that President Bola Tinubu could not assume he would automatically replicate his 2023 performance in the region.
He identified the political influence of former Kano State governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, alongside concerns about the Tinubu administration’s performance in the North, as factors that could shape the contest.
Another political scientist, Nelson Ekujimi, argued that grassroots mobilisation involving political leaders, religious institutions and traditional rulers contributed to the North’s rising registration figures.
However, a lecturer in political science at Benue State College of Education, Katsina-Ala, Kuma Iorkaan, warned that the North-West might not deliver its votes as a single bloc to any presidential candidate in 2027.
Iorkaan said divisions among supporters of Tinubu, Atiku and Peter Obi could split the region’s votes, particularly in Kano, where Kwankwaso retains significant political influence.
He argued that while Tinubu could benefit from stronger regional alignment in the South-West, the North-West would likely witness a more competitive contest.
Iorkaan further warned that divisions among opposition parties could improve Tinubu’s chances of securing re-election.
Despite the increase in voter registration, the figures do not establish how many registered voters will participate in the 2027 elections or which candidates they will support.
The central question for political parties remains whether the North-West’s expanding electorate will translate into higher turnout and a decisive advantage at the ballot box.
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